Thursday, February 26, 2009

Analysis of a Financial Crisis

The United States has been plunged in a very acute financial meltdown since the fall of 2008. Discussions on the causes have had more than their fair share of coverage in the local and international media
There seems to be some consensus around the country amongst informed observers that one of the major causes of the problem was the predatory lending practices of the past several years. During this period, the Bush Administration actively encouraged middle class Americans to own homes. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were encouraged to purchase huge quantities of mortgages from lenders who gave them out with little regard for the repayment prospects of the borrowers. Housing prizes soared during this period and homeowners used their homes to borrow lines of equity hoping the value of their homes would appreciate.
Then came the summer of 2007, when banks and other mortgage lenders began noticing that many people who had received loans could not make their payments. Foreclosures skyrocketed across the country and consumer spending came to a standstill.
The second part of the problem has more to do with core of the financial service companies. Because of the very light regulation of the sector and the millions of new mortgages being generated daily, they began looking for ways to make a quick buck. They created very complex investment instruments, some so complex they themselves could not control. One of such instruments is the mortgage-backed securities. These were bundled up and sold to unsuspecting investors only for them to find out years later that these securities were so complex that no one really knew how much they were worth.

Both issues combined have had two very devastating effects. First, the credit market is clogged, and banks have tightened their lending criteria. Secondly, stock prices of almost all US businesses have fallen, some as much as 90%, driving them out of business and into bankruptcy. Unemployment is at an all-time high and this period is being compared to the Great Depression era of 1929.

Because the US economy drives global business, this crisis was reverberated all over the world. Europe, Asia and South America are now experiencing similar troubles and there’s beginning to be a concerted effort to stop the downward spiral.

There are three observations I can make of the situation;
From a Managerial Accounting point of view, there seems to have been an over-emphasis on profits by all businesses so much so that they lost sight of the big picture. They failed to do strategic planning for their businesses. Instead, they became greedy and concentrated on accumulating huge profits and bonuses. This resulted in unethical behavior and other malpractices on the part of lower, middle, and upper management.
Secondly, because of this overemphasis on profits, and bonuses, the shareholders were not protected. I believe the biggest losers of this crisis are the shareholders who have seen their money disappear before their very own eyes. Companies like Lehmann Brothers, Circuit City, or Linens N’ Things just to name a few have gone bankrupt and shareholders have seen their life savings wiped out. I think this is a very serious ethical concern. Business managers should know that shareholders have trusted them with their hard-earned money and they are responsible to make sure that money produces profits. It is unacceptable that a retired person invests their entire retirement fund with a company like Lehmann brothers, only to find out in September of 2008 that the company is filling for bankruptcy and its assets are being auctioned
Finally, I think the government missed the ball on this particular crisis. The financial service companies were pretty much left to themselves in the name of free market. Everyone, including hard-line free-market proponents like Larry Kudlow of CNBC now agree that the government could have done a better job of regulating the sector. The hands-off approach has clearly brought us disaster and I hope we learn from it
The new administration seems to have gotten the message that free market capitalism doesn’t mean the government should be absent from the picture. Rather, it means the market needs strong and powerful government entities keeping watch over the activities, and safeguarding the interests of the shareholders. President Obama announced a major overhaul of the US financial services industry in the coming days. I hope the outcome of such an endeavor will be strong and relevant enough to insulate average Americans from the devastating effects of any future crisis.
In addition, I believe that the massive American Recovery and Re-investment Act recently passed by Congress and signed into Law by the President will go a long way to get the US economy back on track. The tax cuts to low income Americans and small businesses, as well as increases in federal spending should stop the monthly increase in unemployed Americans. The billions of dollars in direct aid to States should also serve as a lifeline for them to keep basic social services running until the economy recovers.
To avoid such a recession/depression/financial meltdown from happening again, we as Americans must accept our own part of the blame. We were spending more than we earned and bought things we could not afford. This should be an opportunity to reset the clock to zero and start a new journey to a different kind of American Dream where businesses do not chase profits to the detriment of the shareholders and consumers do not demand excessive dividends on investments.
The world is watching to see how we recover from this crisis and as President Obama said in his address to Congress on February 24, 2009, the world is waiting for the US to lead again and this begins with the way in which he rebound from the crisis.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Wanted: President of the United States of America

Job Description

Equal Opportunity Employer ( Applicants will be judged solely on their merits, not Planet or Universe of Origin)
Primary duties will include (but not limited to)
  • Fix an Economic Depression, greater than the Great Depression of 1929 (!*!*)

  • Balance the budget from a current deficit of 1.2 Trillion (1.2 000 000 000 000)

  • Pay off the National Debt which stands at 10.6 Trillion (10.6 000 000 000 000)

  • Cut the cost of Healthcare ( 2 Trillion spent in 2006) Highest amount of money spent on healthcare worldwide but ranked only 37th in terms of quality and service

  • Get America off dependence on foreign oil and fossil fuels

  • Develop renewable forms of energy

  • Actively combat global warming

  • Rebuild America's Infrastructure Network

  • Find a lasting resolution to the Israelo-Palestinian conflict

  • Contain the nuclear ambitions of hostile Countries (Iran, North Korea and Venezuela)
  • Stabilize the Middle East

Interested applicants should forward their resumes and salary requirements (not to exceed $500,000) to weareintrouble@pleasesaveus.com

Wilson, Stop Feeling sorry for Mr Obama

For the past couple of months, over 500,000 jobs have been lost monthly in the US. Guess what happens when 2.6 million people are out of work within 4 or 5 months....less taxes paid to Cities, and States, more money paid out in unemployment benefits, ( only last week it was reported on CNN that because of the large volume of people trying to file for unemployment benefits, the computer system of the organization crashed...). and the vicious cycle rolls on and on culminating in huge budget deficits for eveyone involved.
So as we prepare to witness the inauguration of "44", I sometimes find myself feeling sorry for the guy. This is definitely not the job Mr Obama set out to get back in February 2007 in Springfield, IL when he informed the country of his intention to run for the Presidency. Come on, who wouldn't cringe at the sheer enormity of the tasks at hand.
And the unemployement problems is just one of the hot issues on his White House menu. There's the Financial Crisis which has turned into a modern day "Deep Sea" where you keep throwing money in with the hope that some day, by some stroke of magic or Divine intervention, the sea will fill up.....
Then there's the insanely high cost of healthcare here in the USA. Coming from an entirely different culture, I am always awed by how the system works. The costs of simple procedures quickly run up for no apparent reason (alright, the hospital facilities are top of the line, but must they be?).. In my native land of Cameroon (West Africa), about 40% of the healthcare system is State-run with the rest being handled by private groups and religious organizations for the most part. In my opinion, they accomplish quite alot with very little. This is America, I would have expected that to happen here of all places...efficiency! anyone?
Therefore something significant has to be done about this especially given the very high life expectancy here in the US or no administration will ever be able to balance any budget , I mean ever.
This is why I don't expect Mr Obama to do anything significant about it in his first term, but I hope he keeps it in the back of his mind as he tries to jumspart the economy because the price might just be too high to pay if another White House administration overloooks the issue YET AGAIN
But again, I don't think our 44th president should get any sympathy from anyone. Who has forgotten how vigorouly he campaigned for the job (an how strongly I supported and volunteered for him...) .
I was almost going to forget mentioning maybe the hardest battle Mr Obama wil have to fight day in day out; with opposition so strong and powerful, it might undermine all his good intentions and judgement; The Congress, yes the US Congress will play the most significant role in how quickly and how effective the country can be turned around. I'll leave a discussion on the role of Congress for another day